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ZfU Kapitalanlegertagung 2018

ZfU Kapitalanlegertagung 2018

Behavioral Finance im Fokus

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Market psychology

Market psychology

The power of emotions

The power of emotions affect prices and trends in the markets.

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Euro Break-up Index

Euro Break-up Index

Will the Euro break-up?

What's the risk that the Euro breaks up? Which country is the most exposed? Whats the routes of infection?

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First mover advantage

First mover advantage

Be the earliest bird in town...

Know what more than 4500 investors expecting worldwide - almost in real time.

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Sentiment research

Sentiment research

Professionally and accurately!

Weekly analysis of current market sentiment in German and English - for active participants free of charge!

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sentix ASR Essentials 48-2017

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Inflation casts a shadow across Bunds sentiment revival

Investors are becoming less downbeat on eurozone bonds in terms of both nearterm sentiment and their medium-term strategic bias. This change of tack can also be seen in the gap between strategic bias readings on bunds versus the EuroSTOXX, which is reversing from recent lows. What could de-rail this recent revival? The latest sentix survey also revealed that inflation is viewed as a more bond-bearish theme than it was month ago. A further deterioration in inflationary newsflow could curb the revival in sentiment towards bunds. See Page 2 for charts.

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Germany without Jamaica, Europe without stress

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The last few weeks, which in Germany have been marked by a tough and ultimately unsuccessful struggle for a new government in the form of a Jamaican alliance, have made no difference to the Euro zone from the investors' point of view. The sentix Euro Break-up Index fell slightly to 7.9% in November and is still trading near its all-time low. This means that investors do not worry about Germany's stability and in fact assume that the "grand coalition" will continue, either explicitly or implicitly through a minority government.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 47-2017

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There are no translations available.

Eine echte Contrarian-Position

Kurz vor Ende November ist die Stimmung an den Aktienmärkten schon etwas besonders. Denn echte Gründe, warum die Anleger an den heimischen Börsen bullish auf 4-Wochen-Sicht sind, gibt es nicht. Außer der starken Erwartung, dass es doch fast immer eine Jahresendrallye gibt. An ein Bondinvestment dürften derzeit wohl die wenigsten Anleger denken.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Bund Future

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 47-2017

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Interesting developments in bonds, equities and oil

The latest sentix survey throws up several interesting developments across assets. In the case of bonds, high levels of ‘neutrality’ on the near-term outlook for bunds suggest potential for a pick-up in implied bond volatility from current low levels. In the case of equities, optimism on indices such as the EuroSTOXX is again rising, though at the same time investors have become a little less positive in terms of their medium-term strategic bias. This is likely not being helped by the equity implications of their more positive strategic bias on the euro versus US dollar. In commodities, growing investor oil optimism ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting is set against a less positive view of the medium-term outlook. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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Relaxation à la Trump

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In November, investor concerns over political developments eased slightly. This is mainly due to the fact that geopolitics and the US president are assessed more favorably. An opposite trend is observed in the Brexit theme, which is gaining negative momentum. And even the difficult government formation in Germany weighs on the policy barometer.

The sentix policy barometer may improve slightly in November. Especially declining geopolitical concerns of investors and a better assessment of the topic "Trump" contribute to this. However, less encouraging is the development of the topic "Brexit". This seems to be gaining momentum for investors. Difficult government formation and the possibility of new elections are contributing to the decline in the "elections" sub-index.

sentix politics barometer

Interesting is the development of the assessment of the US president. Although his personal and professional assessment remains critical, investors are increasingly getting used to the situation. In addition, all policy areas are assessed more favorably than in recent months. Above all, the hope for a realization of the tax reduction project is appreciated.

Background

The sentix policy barometer is conducted monthly in the second week of the month. It is intended to show whether and which policy issues from the investor's point of view are decisive for the capital market developments. In addition, we looked at the policy of the current US administration precisely from the current occasion.

The current survey was conducted between November 09th and November 11th, 2017, among more than 1.000 private and institutional investors.

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